Provisional tax 2026/27: deadlines, penalties, and how to estimate safely
The first 2026/27 provisional payment is due 31 August 2026. Who must pay, what happens when you estimate low, and how to stay penalty-free.
Provisional tax is not a separate tax. It is prepayment of your normal income tax for people whose income is not fully taxed at source: freelancers, landlords, company directors with investment income, and most businesses. Get the estimates right and it is a cash flow exercise. Get them wrong and SARS adds penalties that are entirely avoidable.
The 2026/27 dates
- First payment: 31 August 2026, based on an estimate of the full year's taxable income.
- Second payment: 28 February 2027, with the estimate trued up to where the year actually landed.
- Optional third top-up: around the end of September 2027, to stop interest running on any shortfall.
Where the penalties hide
The dangerous one is the underestimation penalty on the second payment. If your final taxable income exceeds the safety thresholds and your estimate was too low, SARS levies up to 20% of the shortfall. Basing your estimate on last year's number while this year doubled is the classic trap, and a 30-minute review in January is the cure.
Filing season for 2025/26 returns runs from July 2026, with auto-assessments landing in early July and the non-provisional deadline on 23 October 2026. Provisional taxpayers have until 22 January 2027 to file. Check the auto-assessment before accepting it; the convenient number is not always the correct one.
Arbor manages provisional tax as a calendar, not a scramble: estimates reviewed against live numbers, payments scheduled, and the third top-up used deliberately where it saves interest. If August always arrives as a surprise, that is fixable.
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